Fantasy basketball and NBA betting overreactions on Wemby, LaMelo and more

Now that we’re two weeks into the NBA season, it’s easy to take a look around the league and make some big assumptions… some overreactions, if you will. Not all of the things that have happened on the NBA hardwood so far are likely to stick for the rest of the season, however, and that presents an opportunity for fantasy managers and NBA bettors to take advantage.

Here are Andre Snellings and Eric Moody with some early season overreactions — and things that may in fact not be overreactions — that you can use in your favor in the weeks and months ahead.

NBA betting

The Cleveland Cavaliers are legitimate contenders to win the Eastern Conference this season.

Entering this season, the defending NBA champion Celtics were the clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference. The major questions were whether the Knicks or the 76ers, after an offseason in which both made major moves and brought in All Star talent, had done enough to challenge the Celtics for the East. There was also discussion as to whether the Bucks, in the second season of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, could return to contention. The Cavaliers were typically discussed in the second or third tier of conference contenders, among the other postseason teams from last season like the Pacers, the Heat and the Magic.

But, as we stand, the Cavaliers are the last undefeated team in the East and are currently the top seed. They have an average scoring margin of +13.2 PPG, which would be a dominant figure if they could maintain it. The Cavaliers have beaten the Bucks twice and also have a road victory against the Knicks in New York. Should we start to consider the Cavaliers as legitimate contenders for the top seed in the East?

Verdict: Not an overreaction. The Cavaliers finished as the fourth seed in both of the last two seasons, built around a core of four young star players. Donovan Mitchell, the eldest of the group at 28 years old, just signed a max extension this offseason to remain the franchise player. But 23 year-old Evan Mobley has made a clear leap in his third season, and both 25-year-old Darius Garland and 26-year-old Jarrett Allen are starting to ramp toward their peak NBA years. In their third season playing together, the Cavaliers seem to have found a synergy with their two elite big men anchoring a top-4 defense (108.5 Defensive Rating, 4th in NBA) and their perimeter stars as the engine for a top-2 offense (121.5 Offensive Rating, 2nd in NBA). These are all sustainable results, with a team that should still be getting better. The Cavaliers currently rank second in the NBA in BPI, behind only the Celtics.

Per ESPN BET, the Cavaliers are set at 53.5 wins (over -125), and they have the third-shortest odds to win the East but are still relative longshots at +750 (Celtics have shortest odds at +120). If they stay healthy, I think the Cavs are excellent value to go over 53.5 wins and are good value as relative long-shots, getting a lot of juice for a team that has a legit chance to win the conference. — Snellings

Golden State is one of five teams off to a 6-1 start and is a title contender.

The Warriors went undefeated in the preseason and opened some eyes with the way they were playing, going with a deep rotation mixed with veterans and young players who could defend and shoot the 3-ball. Winners of six of their first seven games, and only two seasons removed from their last NBA Championship, this is a team that still has Stephen Curry and is worthy of attention in the Western Conference this season.

Verdict: Overreaction. I don’t have confidence in is the Warriors (+1300), who have the seventh-best odds in the Western Conference to punch a ticket to the Finals. Let me explain. While it was encouraging to see the Warriors maintain a winning record while Curry was out for three games with an ankle injury — Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield both stepped up nicely — I have two concerns.

First, the Western Conference remains extremely competitive. Second, the Warriors don’t have another top-tier player to pair with Curry, who will be 37 by the end of the season, while Draymond Green will be 35 in March. These are players who could miss time during the season. It’s difficult for me to view them as serious contenders, especially given the duos and trios on other teams off to a 6-1 start, like the Suns, Celtics, Cavaliers and Thunder. — Moody

Fantasy basketball

LaMelo Ball is a top 12 player in fantasy basketball.

Ball comes in at No. 12 on the ESPN Player Rater and is on pace to set new career highs in scoring (28.6 PPG), FG% (46.6), 3PG (4.6) and 3FG% (39.0). After playing just 36 games in 2022-23 and 22 games last season, Ball has shown no ill-effects from previous injuries and is playing some of the best basketball of his career.

Verdict: Not an overreaction. Ball’s ability to contribute across multiple stat categories makes him incredibly valuable in fantasy hoops. So far this season, he’s one of only five players to average at least 25.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, and 1.0 SPG. The others? Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic-all of whom finished in the top 12 in fantasy points leagues last season. The Hornets’ offense runs through Ball, and his 37.8% usage rate shows it. He’s well-positioned for similar success this year, as long as he stays healthy. — Moody

Victor Wembanyama should not have been the top pick in fantasy basketball.

Based on my preseason projections, Jokic had a slight lead in projected fantasy points this season ahead of Wembanyama. But the projections were relatively conservative for Wembanyama, who’s ceiling is still unknown and potentially sky-high, so many (including me) tended to pick Wemby at the top of points-based fantasy leagues. In category/rotisserie leagues, Wemby projected as the very clear No. 1 overall pick with his production in harder-to-fill categories like blocks, steals and 3-pointers unmatchable in today’s league.

But, two weeks into the season, Jokic is averaging an absurd triple-double of 29.6 PPG, 12.6 RPG and 10.3 APG. Wembanyama, on the other hand, is off to a more modest start with averages of 18.9 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 3.1 APG. Jokic’s average is more than nine fantasy points ahead of second place (Anthony Davis) and almost 20 fantasy points ahead of eighth-place Wembanyama. Jokic also leads the player rater, which estimates category-league production, just over three points ahead of third-place Wemby. So, in hindsight, Jokic should have been the top overall pick in both fantasy formats.

Verdict: Overreaction. Jokic has flirted with averaging a triple-double for multiple seasons, and it’s conceivable that he does it this season. Particularly with second option Jamal Murray dealing with injuries and a thin Nuggets bench, Jokic is having to carry an even larger load than usual. However, Wemby is just getting started. Even in his slower start, if you look at Wemby’s best performance in each category so far, you’d get 29 points, 20 rebounds, 7 assists, 9 blocks and 5 steals. He got off to a relatively slow start his rookie season as well, and by the second half of the season he was one of the best players in the NBA as a rookie. While the Joker is operating at his MVP finest, I’m still open to the idea that by season’s end Wemby will have overtaken him in the fantasy points and category rankings. — Snellings